Renewed clashes in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region have pushed the November 2022 Pretoria peace agreement to the brink of unraveling, drawing fresh international scrutiny to the contrasting diplomatic postures of key Gulf powers. As federal forces and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) clash again and tensions with neighbouring Eritrea simmer, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia are pursuing distinct strategies shaped by their respective economic stakes and regional alignments across the Horn of Africa.
Abu Dhabi has adopted an explicit stance backing Ethiopia’s federal authorities. Following recent clashes, the UAE condemned TPLF offensives and airport seizures in Tigray, with Minister of State Sheikh Shakhboot bin Nahyan Al Nahyan voicing firm solidarity with Ethiopia's sovereignty while urging civilian protection and compliance with the Pretoria accord. Beyond diplomacy, the UAE holds substantial commercial ties to Addis Ababa, including logistics networks through Somaliland’s Berbera port that provide landlocked Ethiopia with critical alternative trade corridors. Observers note, however, that public solidarity and commercial links do not guarantee meaningful leverage over Tigrayan commanders or the federal government's military calculus.
In contrast, Saudi Arabia has maintained a cautious public silence on the latest fighting, despite having pursued quiet diplomatic efforts earlier this year to ease tensions between Addis Ababa and the TPLF. Riyadh, which previously attempted to broker talks between Ethiopia and Eritrea amid disputes over maritime access, remains acutely sensitive to stability along the Red Sea shipping corridor. While regional analyses note that Saudi diplomatic interests align closely with Egypt and Eritrea regarding Red Sea security, there is no evidence of direct Saudi involvement in the current fighting, leaving its appetite for higher-profile mediation uncertain.
The crisis is further complicated by wider regional friction, notably between Ethiopia and Egypt over Nile water rights and Red Sea governance. Although Ethiopian military officials have accused external rivals of backing armed factions, Cairo has rejected allegations of interference while deepening its coordination with Eritrea. With outside powers maneuvering around competing security and commercial interests, whether diplomatic channels from the Gulf can help avert a broader regional escalation remains in doubt.